The emotion, the pageantry, the history and the rivalries of college football are unparalleled in the realm of sports. And it is these factors that make college football one of the best sports for gambling on in this country.
But college football is one of the most difficult sports for bettors to consistently beat. And what starts as a season full of hope and excitement can quickly go sideways for even experienced gamblers.
Gambling isn’t magic, it’s math. Variables determine complexity in a math equation and college football has the most variables impacting a wager of any sport. Take 11 offensive starters, 11 defensive starters, numerous other players in sub packages, backups, and specialists. Throw them together and that is nearly 40 players per team and around 80 players involved in each game – any of whom can blow a perfectly good wager with a missed assignment, costly penalty, horrific turnover, or some other mistake.
But there are a lot of different tips, tricks and tidbits that professional handicappers like my associates at Doc’s Sports Services and I use to stay above the insanity and ahead of the sportsbooks. The majority of gamblers lose money betting on football. But if you incorporate these suggestions into your overall betting game plan you have a good chance of turning things around on the sportsbooks and making one of the most popular and enjoyable sports become one of the most profitable.
Here are some tips for how to bet on college football from a professional handicapper:
1. Money management is crucial.
Regardless of sport, money management is the key to successful sports betting. You should generally not be betting more than three or four percent of your stack on any one given game, with the exception of those rare situations that warrant slightly more. Even then you shouldn’t commit more than seven percent on any one situation.
So if you have $2,000 in your account you should be betting around $60-$80 per game. I know, I know: that’s not as sexy as betting $200 or $300 per play. But “sexy” is for amateurs and tourists. Bet within your means and you’ll stay in the game a lot longer. And if you do that then you can eventually turn that $2,000 into $4,000, $5,000 or $10,000 and then be the high roller you always wanted to be!
2. Have a plan.
Professionals like myself spend countless hundreds of hours readying for a college football season. You’re busy. You don’t have that kind of time. I get it. But if you’re going to be wagering hard-earned dollars on the gridiron you need to be somewhat prepared. Every hour that you spend doing work before the regular season begins will save you two hours once the footballs start flying.
Put in time before the season starts. Figure out which teams you like and which ones you don’t. Determine whom you think is underrated and who is overrated. Check out coaching changes and look at which teams lost the most talent from last year’s squad. Most importantly, scan over teams’ schedules in order to target some games where you think a team will be ripe to bet on or against. This way when mid-October rolls around you already have a few upset specials or high value situations in your sights and you won’t be swayed by peripheral factors.
3. Learn to make and read the lines.
One of the biggest mistakes bettors make is they believe because they know a lot about a sport they will be good at betting that sport. This isn’t true, just like eating a lot of food doesn’t make you an expert chef.
To ignore or underestimate the oddsmakers is to seal your own fate. Trap lines, reverse line movements, false line moves – the sportsbooks have a lot of tricks up their sleeves. And you need to understand what these concepts are and how to spot them. The best bettors are also usually solid oddsmakers themselves. And they know which teams the books want to take action on and which games are vulnerable.
Before looking at the spreads each week you should jot down what you think the odds will be on each game. Compare your numbers with the pros’ and then try to figure out the discrepancies. Throughout the week you should check to see if a spread is moving and how those movements reflect the betting patterns for that game. Compare those movements to the actual results and over time you’ll start to see patterns emerge. And all of that can be done with the same amount of time someone may spend fumbling through an injury report mid-week, and the long-term benefits will be much more significant.
4. Emotion is one of the biggest factors.
There is no more important factor when handicapping college football games than emotion. After all, these are 18 to 22-year old kids that we’re dealing with. (Unless we’re talking about Utah, whose players are like 28.) These kids are erratic and unpredictable. But these are also capable of doing incredible things when they get caught up in the emotion of a specific situation.
Rivalry games, injuries to star players, and the revenge factor are all key handicapping components each week. Look Ahead Games – when a team overlooks its current opponent because they are focused on next week’s game – are a very real phenomenon. Let Down Games – when a team plays poorly in the game following a peak emotional effort – are just as common. You need to be able to pinpoint both and bet on teams accordingly.
5. Continuity counts.
Constant roster turnover is a unique feature to college football handicapping. Graduation, transfers, injuries, and freshmen are all constantly reshuffling the deck of the 130 teams in the FBS. There are thousands of players to keep track of and it can be overwhelming.
That also makes continuity a key factor in performance. Teams with a high number of returning starters – at least 15 or more – and teams with upperclassmen-heavy rosters are generally worth keeping an eye on, especially at the beginning of the season. Conversely, even the top tier programs aren’t immune to rebuilding seasons or regression when they lose a good portion of their starters.
Also, offensive and defensive coordinators are always changing. New schemes and systems can have a dramatic impact on performance, and there is usually an adjustment period. On the flip side, teams with proven systems – think about Chris Peterson at Boise State or the Quack Attack in Oregon – can be counted on year-in and year-out. And their coaching infrastructure can more easily offset personnel losses.
6. Use the Top 25 in your favor.
Nothing ropes in square money for the sportsbooks like the Top 25. Common bettors see those rankings and think that those little numbers by the team name somehow ascribe magical powers to the teams they adorn. When the reality is that the college football rankings system is one of the biggest farces in all of sports. And that flawed, subjective system has only a fleeting basis in reality and little tangible impact as to what happens on the field.
Sportsbook love the Top 25 because they help foster a sort of herd mentality about teams. Oddsmakers adjust the spreads because of their rankings, knowing that square bettors will blindly pour money into these top rated teams.
But the Top 25 could be a sharp bettor’s best friend. By targeting which teams are grossly overrated and underrated you can stay ahead of the general betting public in finding line value. Also, little tricks like spotting an unranked team that is favored over a ranked team or understanding that road ranked teams laying big points are usually sucker plays can help a novice college football bettor keep some cash.
7. Keep a long-term perspective and do what works for YOU.
If you want to survive the highs and lows of gambling through a full college football season you need to be prepared for the highs and lows of a full college football gambling season. That is why money management is so critical. But it is also important to set a reasonable goal for yourself for the season and then keep your focus on attaining that.
One of the worst things that bettors can do is listen to other gamblers. I know it always seems like someone out there is winning more than you or making more money than you or doing things a better way than you are. But usually the exact opposite is true.
The best method is the one that keeps you playing and that steadily earns you money over the long term. Not everyone can have a 68-percent winning system like I do with my KING College Football Betting System. But that is OK. If you have a method that works then stick with it. If you make money just betting on the ACC then don’t try to branch out and bet on the MAC. Keep it simple and do what works for you. Don’t overwhelm yourself and don’t get greedy. Keep those long-term goals in mind and remember that slow and steady is the way to go.
College football betting is a challenge for even the most seasoned gamblers. But the sport is beatable. My associates at Doc’s Sports and I have been doing it for over 40 years and this is the stuff that we live for. Hopefully this article has given you some tools to use against the sportsbooks. You can try to bet like the pros or you can sign up and sit back and let the pros do all the work. Either way, as long as you are making money and having a great time doing it you are already way ahead in this game.
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and a member of the Football Writer’s Association of America. He has been one of the best long-term earners in the industry, with nearly $13,000 in profit for his $100-per-Unit bettors over the last 16 football months. His incredible KING College Football Betting System went 42-20-1 last season and is off to a great start this year. He is looking forward to building on his stellar football handicapping resume again this fall and you can check him out here.
1. Placing bets on how many points a certain player will score! So you think you can predict how many points a certain player will put up the score sheet on a given night? You might get lucky, once or twice, but trust us, luck lasts shortly, and if you plan on making some profits by guessing how many points your player will score always have on mind which player might guard him on defense. If Kawhi Leonard, who by the way is one of the best defenders in the league, is guarding your player, than it is logical that you should go UNDER the proposed points limit. However, if James Harden is guarding your player, then your player is most likely to go OVER the given limit!
2. Always check the final roster of each team just before the start of the game! This is very important since in the NBA it happens a lot that a certain player is out with an injury and decides not to play in the final seconds before the game starts. If that player is a great defender who was supposed to guard your player on defense, than this would suit you perfectly, as the chances of your player going OVER have significantly increased. Another thing why checking the final lineups in the last minutes is important is because if there are two players on the same team that can easily go over 25-30 points, and if one of them ends up not playing, then you can always bet on the other one and go OVER, as he is likely going to take more shots and have the ball more in his hands. This was the case with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant last season with the OKC. Even a better example was Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets. The young Serbian center was seeing limited minutes before Jusuf Nurkic got injured. It was then when Nikola Jokic exploded and displayed his huge potential and talent, going OVER for most of the time.
3. Know how many points per game your team is allowing!!! This applies to all of the teams in the NBA. If you want to bet on the OVER or UNDER, know how teams are playing at home or away, and how many points per game they are allowing to their opponents.
4. Always follow the trends of players/teams!!! No, we don’t mean the fashion trends, you geeks.... What we mean by this is do your research on how a certain player or a team is performing over a course of 5 or 10 games. If a player, who has career averages of 10-15 ppg, is scoring 20+ ppg in the last 5 games, this means that he is most likely going to go OVER the 20 points in the upcoming games as well. Same applies for the teams, if they are scoring more points per game than the seasons averages, than they have caught the hot streak, and you should follow them until they start to slow down.
5. Open an account with several different bookmakers!!! Usually, all of the https://sportsinformationtraders.com basketball oddsmakers offer similar wages, with slight differences. However, some bookmakers offer noticeable different wages and you should take the advantage of that. That is why it is always good to have an account with several bookmakers....you should start with the Sports Information Traders, the world’s leading handicapping service.... Well, we hope that know you feel more confident entering the world of "investing" in sports, specifically, the NBA. The key to succes, as Jon Price likes to say it, is a thorough preparation and learning on how to use the statistics into your advantage....That is why it is important for YOU to look at the sports wagering as an investment, just like any other investment, which means that you should do your homework and a research before you decide to give up your money....HAPPY BETTING!!!
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Bob Runciman, an MP for the New Democrat party and Conservative Senator, is hoping to get a new bill legalising Single-Game betting through parliament, which would represent a relaxation of the existing laws. At present the gambling laws in Canada allow citizens to bet on sporting events like baseball, ice hockey and basketball, as long as the bets are on a series of fixtures – rather than single individual ones. The changes proposed by Runciman would amend this slightly strange state of affairs which, as Runciman has indicated, most Canadian gambling enthusiasts already disregard.
Reaction to the bill amongst the wider populace in Canada has been mixed, but the move has been championed by the online casino canada site Lucky Nugget, which has argued that relaxing the existing gambling laws would create further employment within the Canadian gambling sector, thus benefiting the country as a whole. This argument is based on the evidence of a 2011 study conducted by the Canadian Gaming Association which, according to Lucky Nugget online casino, shows that legalising single-game betting would lead to the creation of 250 jobs and up to $250 million in income for border casinos in Niagara Falls and Windsor. Further support for the bill has come from the Windsor MP, Joe Comartin, who claims that it will boost employment in his district, primarily at Caesars Casino.
When it comes to the general public in Canada, a recent opinion poll by Harris/Decima, which questioned 1,000 people, has indicated that there is a distinct split over the merits of the bill. The poll showed that 35% of those questioned backed the move to legalise single-game bets, while the exact same percentage favoured retention of the existing laws. The remaining 30% remained open-minded on the matter, but the poll does indicate that further work is needed to fully persuade the public on the matter.
Picking the best poker tables for yourself can make or break you. On the best poker sites online you will typically have numerous tables with different styles of poker to choose from. So how do you choose where to sit (or virtually sit)?
The first thing to determine is what type of poker you want to play. There are numerous different types of poker styles available on freepoker sites. Here is a brief overview of some of the popular poker styles you may see available online.
Once you understand the basic poker styles, choosing the best poker table will be a breeze. The only question you will have to ask yourself is “how much do I want to bet” and choose a table accordingly. Beginners can start at freepoker tables and work their way up. Happy betting.